Wall Street Futures Rebound as US and Iran Signal a Pause in Hostilities

Key Takeaways

• US stock futures rose Sunday evening after reports that the US and Iran had agreed to halt further strikes following a weekend escalation.
• S&P 500 futures climbed roughly 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures about 0.6%, and Dow futures around 0.3% in early trading.
• Oil prices ticked higher as traders weighed the risk of renewed disruption to crude supplies; Brent rose to about $72 a barrel and WTI to roughly $70.
• The bounce follows a rough week for major indexes, with the Nasdaq down 4.6% and the S&P 500 nearly 2% lower, while the Dow held up better on strength in healthcare stocks.

US equity futures pointed higher late Sunday into Monday, June 29, after reports emerged that Washington and Tehran had reached an understanding to pause further military exchanges. The move offered some relief to a market that had been rattled by a sharp escalation between the US and Iran over the weekend, with traders now watching closely for any signs the truce could unravel.

A Volatile Run-Up to the Holiday Week

Futures tied to the S&P 500 gained about 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced roughly 0.6%, and Dow futures inched up around 0.3% as the news of a halt to hostilities filtered through trading desks. The rebound came after a turbulent stretch in which the US struck Iranian military targets, with Washington saying the action followed attacks attributed to Tehran along the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical corridors for oil shipping. President Donald Trump added to the uncertainty over the weekend, warning on social media that the US could take further action if needed, raising questions about how durable any pause in hostilities would prove to be.

The geopolitical shock hit markets hard last week. The S&P 500 fell close to 2%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.6% as investors rotated out of high-growth names exposed to both rate sensitivity and broader risk-off sentiment. The sell-off hit the largest tech names hardest: Nvidia and Alphabet both shed more than 8% for the week, while Meta, Apple, and Amazon each gave back over 4%. SpaceX, only weeks into its life as a public company, took an even bigger hit, sliding 17% as investors pulled back from richly priced new listings amid the broader volatility.

Not every part of the market moved in lockstep. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed its peers, ending the week up 0.6%, buoyed by a rotation into defensive sectors. Healthcare names led the gains, with Merck climbing 13% and Johnson & Johnson advancing 11.5%, suggesting investors sought shelter in less rate- and geopolitics-sensitive corners of the market even as tech sold off.

Oil Markets Stay on Edge

Energy markets reflected the same push-and-pull between relief over the reported truce and lingering concern about supply risk. Brent crude rose about 0.8% to trade near $72 a barrel, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate gained roughly 1.1% to around $70. Given the Strait of Hormuz’s role as a chokepoint for global energy flows, any renewed flare-up in the conflict carries the potential to push oil prices sharply higher — a scenario that would complicate the inflation picture for both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank just as both institutions are trying to gauge how durable recent price pressures will prove to be.

What Comes Next

The market’s reaction underscores how sensitive risk appetite remains to headlines out of the Middle East, even as underlying US economic data — including a still-resilient labor market and moderating inflation readings — has given investors reason for cautious optimism heading into the second half of the year. This week’s calendar adds another layer of importance: because US markets will be closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday, the closely watched June nonfarm payrolls report will be released a day early, on Thursday, alongside consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, and ISM manufacturing data. Any signs that the labor market is cooling — or that it remains too hot for the Fed’s comfort — could quickly overshadow the geopolitical narrative. For now, traders appear to be giving the reported halt in hostilities the benefit of the doubt, but with energy markets and mega-cap tech both still exposed to headline risk, volatility is unlikely to disappear from Wall Street’s radar just yet.